Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 2.479285 2.902997 3.372881 3.932001 4.578579 5.302194 6.172862
2025-11-16 1.764709 2.315708 2.994290 3.888696 5.033645 6.447072 8.321054
2025-11-23 1.333804 1.925922 2.721784 3.863345 5.451472 7.574285 10.617292
2025-11-30 1.109567 1.737277 2.645453 4.043564 6.127537 9.101485 13.645408
2025-12-07 0.910448 1.531902 2.491550 4.063664 6.552484 10.311518 16.379844
2025-12-14 0.755659 1.357179 2.342291 4.048731 6.899316 11.426907 19.099590
2025-12-21 0.640698 1.221710 2.225766 4.055561 7.264404 12.597009 22.035659
2025-12-28 0.597789 1.201957 2.296719 4.382753 8.199647 14.797474 26.924152
2026-01-04 0.529833 1.121718 2.244669 4.478518 8.736166 16.378521 30.939249
2026-01-11 0.475895 1.057749 2.210401 4.597604 9.323993 18.109803 35.415452
2026-01-18 0.420204 0.979195 2.133884 4.620151 9.726064 19.540798 39.497198
2026-01-25 0.359012 0.876903 1.992031 4.487193 9.799207 20.351202 42.483604
2026-02-01 0.298610 0.766096 1.817124 4.264465 9.672020 20.783166 44.842975
2026-02-08 0.258333 0.694631 1.716753 4.188539 9.845501 21.845278 48.618856
2026-02-15 0.226539 0.637457 1.639091 4.150999 10.096521 23.097495 52.942885
2026-02-22 0.212130 0.621956 1.657328 4.340084 10.884303 25.587987 60.209272
2026-03-01 0.190420 0.582318 1.609258 4.360194 11.279183 27.257576 65.856011
2026-03-08 0.169784 0.541283 1.550482 4.343730 11.582777 28.754394 71.282692
2026-03-15 0.152772 0.507114 1.503831 4.350855 11.944734 30.426571 77.304089
2026-03-22 0.150729 0.517783 1.581170 4.700553 13.225021 34.423962 89.278201
2026-03-29 0.139620 0.497779 1.569014 4.802883 13.873510 36.958397 97.983794
2026-04-05 0.130356 0.481795 1.565833 4.930143 14.606020 39.783513 107.716980
2026-04-12 0.118909 0.455995 1.529006 4.954235 15.059135 41.950396 116.024953